It’s not shaping up to be a classic, is it? The only real note of intrigue remaining in this Tour de France is whether Tadej Pogacar might at some point show some sign of human frailty.
- Stages 1-10
- Stages 11-15
- Stages 16-21
If there was a moment that summed up where we are in this race, it came ahead of Stage 13. Pogacar’s most credible rival was Jonas Vingegaard, but with a time trial up a mountain in prospect, the race leader had already significantly bested the Dane in both a time trial and up a mountain.
Try mining that one for sporting uncertainty. Could he crash? Uphill, under no meaningful pressure from his rivals? Not likely. Might the fatigue of a long race start to tell? Well, the previously mentioned mountain superiority had come literally the day before, when everyone else had looked significantly wearier than him.
In the end, the result was what absolutely everyone expected it to be and Pogacar’s overall lead swelled to over four minutes.
There are of course no certainties in the Tour de France, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t sometimes afflicted by incredibly solid likelihoods. The race is most exciting when the rider with the advantage has shown some vulnerability, but Pogacar, this year, has expunged all of that. The chances that he might at some point not be the strongest rider in this race seem slim anyway, but even if he were to suffer a third week drop-off in form, his current margin is now so great he’d probably still win anyway.
Not that Pogacar has faded much in recent grand tour victories. Getting progressively more tired seems to be out of fashion these days.
So what are we left with? That something like that might happen? That there might be a world where his limits are exposed and we can begin to envisage some plausible if unlikely path to victory for another rider in some future year?
As hooks go, it’s not a corker.
What else?
The big story of the race from a UK perspective has been 22-year-old Oscar Onley from Kelso. After finishing fourth in the Tour Down Under last year, he’s racked up a load of top 10 finishes in shorter stage races and then translated that into a strong first week at this year’s Tour, hanging with Pogacar and Vingegaard even when the group thinned to just five or six riders.
Those early feats involved conquering only hills rather than mountains, so it was interesting to see how he fared in the Pyrenees. Fifth place on the first big stage to Hautacam suggests that regardless of how things go for him this coming week, he has it in him to contest the Tour de France. British fans have been spoilt this last decade, but that really is quite the thing. Given all his future feats won’t be on ITV, I’m calling him Oscar Onley Seen On Pay TV.
What’s next?
The final week is the Alpine week, but before that there’s an ascent of Mont Ventoux on Stage 16 (Tuesday). This is always a slightly weird stage because the Giant of Provence’s 15.7km at 8.8% comes not after a day of climbing, but after a 150km dash across the flat, which can really mess with riders’ legs.
Wednesday looks like a sprint stage and then we’re in the thick of it. Stage 18 brings three hors catégorie (beyond categorisation) climbs: the Col du Glandon and the Col de la Madeleine before a summit finish up the less silly side of the Col de la Loze (which is still 26.4km at 6.5%).
This is followed on Friday by another beast of a stage with five climbs, two of which are HC. Again, it’s a summit finish – 19.1km at 7.7% to La Plagne.
Those look spectacular on paper, but Stage 20 through the Jura mountains on Saturday looks more intriguing. It’s one of those routes that’s awash with unmarked climbs, meaning you’re never quite sure what’s going to happen when.
The final stage in Paris on Sunday has a novelty: the new climb of Montmartre (1.1km at 5.9%) crowbarred into it three times to break up the race. Who knows how that’ll play out.
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